June 15, 2024

Patriots

Expectations are low for the Patriots this season, holding a few of their lowest odds since Invoice Belichick turned head coach.

Mac Jones and Invoice Belichick hope to have a greater 2023 than what oddsmakers are projecting them to have. John Tlumacki/Globe Employees

After months and months with out soccer, the Patriots’ 2023 season is barely a day away from kicking off.

The Patriots host the reigning NFC East champion Eagles of their regular-season opener Sunday. As there’s been a number of hypothesis and predictions on how the Patriots will carry out in 2023, optimism surrounding the group seems to be at a low level within the Invoice Belichick period.

Let’s take one final look although at what oddsmakers are projecting for the Patriots and some notable gamers on the eve of the 2023 season, with all odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Workforce odds

Win complete: 6.5 wins (-140 Over/+120 Below)

Odds to make the playoffs: +245 (No -310)

Odds to win the AFC East: +800

Odds to win the AFC: +5000

Odds to win the Tremendous Bowl: +6500

Many of those odds are the bottom they’ve been for the Patriots since Belichick turned head coach in 2000, together with their +6500 odds to win the Tremendous Bowl.

There’s some historical past on the Patriots’ facet although that signifies that they may not be as dangerous as a number of the odds say. The Patriots have misplaced fewer video games than their projected win complete (which initially opened up at 7.5 however fell to six.5 in latest weeks) simply as soon as within the Belichick period, which was in his yr after they gained simply 5 video games. The group has additionally by no means completed with two consecutive shedding seasons and hasn’t missed the playoffs in back-to-back years underneath Belichick’s watch.

In fact, Tom Brady was at quarterback with a purpose to assist make that doable. However the Patriots nonetheless had a playoff look in 2021 with rookie Mac Jones at quarterback and went 11-5 with Matt Cassel enjoying rather than an injured Brady for almost the whole lot of the 2008 season.

However because the Patriots maintain the worst odds to win the AFC East and fourth-fewest odds to win the AFC, a number of that has to do with the rising expertise round them. The Jets added Aaron Rodgers over the offseason whereas the Payments have gained the AFC East over the past three seasons. The Dolphins additionally look like on the upswing after making the playoffs final yr.

Patriots proprietor Robert Kraft just lately informed reporters that he doesn’t thoughts his group being considered within the style they’re being considered in.

“I form of like that persons are choosing us to return in fourth within the division,” Kraft mentioned.

Mac Jones

Passing yards complete: 3,199.5 (+600 to succeed in 4,000 passing yards, +5000 to succeed in 5,000 passing yards)

Odds to guide the league in passing yards: +5000

Passing touchdowns complete: 19.5

Odds to guide the league in passing touchdowns: +5000

Interceptions complete: 11.5

Odds to guide the league in interceptions: +1600

Odds to win MVP: +6500

Odds to win Offensive Participant of the 12 months: +20000

There isn’t a lot religion amongst oddsmakers that Jones can have a serious bounceback season after struggling in 12 months 2.

Jones is on the decrease finish amongst beginning quarterbacks’ odds to win MVP and Offensive Participant of the 12 months.

The stat totals are roughly in between to how Jones carried out in his first two seasons. He threw for two,997 yards in 14 video games final season after tossing for 3,801 yards as a rookie. He had 14 passing touchdowns final yr, eight fewer than the 22 he threw for as a rookie. He additionally had 11 interceptions final yr, two fewer than what he threw as a rookie.

Whereas Jones’s odds to guide the league in interception seem excessive, they’re truly nearer to the center of the pack. He’s tied with Geno Smith, Bryce Younger, and Anthony Richardson for the Eleventh-highest odds to guide the NFL in interceptions in 2023.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Dashing yards complete: 850.5

Odds to guide the league in dashing yards: +2900

Dashing touchdowns complete: 5.5

Odds to guide the league in dashing touchdowns: +3000

Dashing and receiving yards complete: 1,225.5

Odds to win Offensive Participant of the 12 months: +7000

Oddsmakers don’t consider Stevenson will put up stats as robust as final season, however they’re projecting him to have one other good yr in 2023.

Stevenson is tied for the ninth-best odds to guide the league in dashing this season after he completed thirteenth with 1,040 yards final season. So, the 850.5 dashing yards complete is sort of 20 % fewer than what he had final season. However with the 1,225.5 yards from scrimmage complete, oddsmakers assume that Stevenson can have the same impression within the passing recreation as he had final season, when he recorded 421 receiving yards.

Stevenson has truly by no means rushed for greater than 5 touchdowns in a season, posting that quantity in every of his first two years within the league. Splitting carries with Damien Harris (who had 15 touchdowns in Stevenson’s rookie season) might need performed a hand in that. However Stevenson can be sharing carries with arguably the most effective objective line backs within the NFL this season.

With Stevenson’s dual-threat means, he holds the Eleventh-best odds amongst operating backs to win Offensive Participant of the 12 months, however continues to be thought of a longshot to win the award.

Ezekiel Elliott

Dashing yards complete: 425.5

Dashing touchdowns complete: 4.5

Odds to guide the league in dashing touchdowns: +7500

Elliott enters his first yr away from the Cowboys with low expectations from oddsmakers, who challenge him to have profession lows within the two greatest dashing stats.

Although Elliott arguably had the worst season of his profession in 2022, the 28-year-old nonetheless cleared his projected dashing yards and touchdowns complete for 2023 by so much final yr. He ran for 876 yards (a career-low) and 12 touchdowns, which have been tied for the fifth most within the league.

If Elliott is usually used within the crimson zone, then he gained’t have as many alternatives to place up massive dashing yard totals. Nonetheless, the Patriots lack a lot depth behind him and Stevenson, so he may have loads of alternatives to get carries within the open subject.

Matthew Judon

Sacks complete: 11.75

Odds to guide the league in sacks: +3000

Odds to win Defensive Participant of the 12 months: +5000

Oddsmakers like Judon to have one other robust season for the Patriots.

The Professional Bowl edge rusher has truly had the 2 greatest seasons of his profession in every of his first two years in New England. Judon had 12.5 sacks in 2021 earlier than setting one other career-high in sacks with 15.5 final season, which was tied for the fourth-most within the NFL.

Whereas Judon completed near the highest of the sacks leaderboard final season, oddsmakers don’t view it too doubtless that he leads the league in sacks. His +3000 odds to take action are tied for the ninth-best with three different gamers. A latest ESPN analytical mannequin just lately projected Judon to complete with 9 sacks in 2023 as properly.

If Judon is ready to lead the league in sacks although, he’d stand an excellent likelihood at profitable Defensive Participant of the 12 months. Seven of the final 12 winners have been edge rushers, with the final two winners being the gamers that led the league in sacks.

Invoice Belichick

Odds to win Coach of the 12 months: +3000

No energetic coach has gained extra Coach of the 12 months awards than Belichick, who has three of them. Nonetheless, Belichick hasn’t gained one since 2010.

An enormous purpose for that’s doubtless as a result of Patriots’ anticipated robust outcomes by a lot of the final twenty years. Most of the latest Coach of the 12 months winners have gone to coaches who helped their group make the playoffs or lead the league in wins after they weren’t anticipated to do both, comparable to Matt Rhule with the Giants final season or Kevin Stefanski with the Browns in 2020.

So, Belichick may very well be in an excellent place to win the award this season if the Patriots make the playoffs or unexpectedly win the AFC East.

Different participant odds

Kyle Dugger interceptions complete: 2.5

Christian Gonzalez interceptions complete: 2.5

Christian Gonzalez odds to win Defensive Rookie of the 12 months: +1400

Demario Douglas odds to win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months: +15000

Kayshon Boutte odds to win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months: +15000

Keion White odds to win Defensive Rookie of the 12 months: +25000

Just a few different Patriots gamers have some notable odds listed for achievements this season.

Dugger, a fourth-year security, has truly cleared the two.5 interception complete in every of the final two seasons, posting three in 2021 and 4 final season.

Gonzalez, the Patriots’ first-round decide, holds the fourth-best odds of profitable Defensive Rookie of the 12 months. Cornerbacks have traditionally struggled to win the award through the years with solely three corners profitable the award since 2000. However Sauce Gardner might need bucked the pattern final yr, profitable the award as he recorded two interceptions and was a shutdown nook for the Jets.

Douglas, Boutte, and White are all unsurprisingly considered as longshots to win Rookie of the 12 months on their respective sides of the ball. The final 5 Offensive Rookie of the 12 months winners have been first-round picks whereas the final 4 Defensive Rookie of the 12 months winners have been first-round picks.