June 12, 2024


The Patriots want a handful of issues exterior of their management to occur in the event that they need to transfer into pole place for the No. 1 total decide.

Invoice Belichick and the Patriots could possibly be tied for the league’s worst document after Sunday. Maddie Meyer/Getty Pictures

As the vacation season is right here, some Patriots followers are hoping that their crew is presented the No. 1 total decide or a top-two choice within the 2024 NFL Draft, seemingly giving them the best to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

The Patriots are in pole place to land the No. 2 total decide coming into Week 16, already placing them in a great spot to finish up holding a top-two decide. Whereas they’re only one loss behind the Panthers (who owe their decide to the Bears) for the worst document within the league, the Patriots are at present tied with the Cardinals for the second-worst document within the NFL.

So, let’s check out how the Patriots can enhance their probabilities at getting the No. 1 total decide or a top-two decide this weekend.

How can the Patriots can enhance their possibilities of getting the No. 1 total decide in Week 16?

After all, the Patriots nonetheless want the Panthers to win not less than yet another sport if they need an opportunity on the No. 1 total decide. The Panthers host the 6-8 Packers on Sunday, trying to get back-to-back wins as they host a Inexperienced Bay crew that has misplaced two in a row.

If the Patriots lose and the Panthers win Sunday, another issues would want to occur for New England to maneuver into pole place for the No. 1 total decide. Energy of schedule is the highest tiebreaker used to find out draft order, with the crew holding the lesser energy of schedule profitable the tiebreaker.

As of Saturday, the Panthers maintain a slight edge over the Patriots when it comes to having a worse energy of schedule. Carolina’s opponents have a .517 profitable share this season whereas New England’s opponents have a .519 profitable share in 2023. Each groups truly benefitted from the Saints’ loss to the Rams on Thursday, however the Panthers have been helped just a bit extra as a result of they confronted New Orleans twice this season.

So, needing to lose and needing the Panthers to select up a win, the Patriots want the groups they’ve confronted this season to lose just a bit bit greater than the groups the Panthers have confronted this season. There are solely two widespread, non-divisional opponents between each groups (the Colts and Cowboys), so no matter they do is a wash.

So, it’d profit the Patriots’ energy of schedule to have the Steelers lose to the Bengals, the Payments lose to the Chargers, the Jets lose to the Commanders, and the Dolphins lose to the Cowboys this weekend. On the flip aspect, the Falcons beating the Colts, the Texans beating the Browns, the Bears beating the Cardinals, and the Buccaneers beating the Jaguars, would enhance the Panthers’ energy of schedule, serving to the Patriots.

How can the Patriots enhance their possibilities of getting a top-two decide this weekend?

One of many outcomes that will profit the Patriots within the energy of schedule race with the Panthers would truly damage their possibilities of securing a top-two decide sooner.

Clearly, the Cardinals dropping to the Bears on Sunday would imply they’d nonetheless have an an identical document with the Patriots if New England additionally misplaced this weekend.

If the Cardinals have been to beat the Bears although, the Patriots could possibly be on the precipice of locking up a top-two decide. Arizona has one of many hardest energy of schedules within the league this season at .569, making it almost unimaginable for it to catch New England for a lesser energy of schedule.

Past the Cardinals, a Commanders win would assist the Patriots in each their pursuit of the No. 1 decide and securing a top-two decide. The Commanders are the lone crew within the league with 4 wins they usually at present have a slight benefit in energy of schedule (.515) over the Patriots.

If the Commanders and Cardinals each lose on Sunday, the Patriots may nonetheless safe a top-four decide this weekend. However they would want the Giants, Chargers, and Titans all to win.

What are the Patriots’ odds to land the No. 1 total decide coming into Week 16?

The Patriots nonetheless have an outdoor likelihood to land the No. 1 total decide, in keeping with ESPN’s FPI. The system provides New England a 13 p.c likelihood to wind up with the No. 1 total decide, giving Carolina an 81.6 p.c likelihood of ending with the worst document.

Nonetheless, the Patriots maintain a very good shot at touchdown a prime decide. Along with having the second-best likelihood to get the No. 1 total decide, the Patriots even have a 98.1 p.c likelihood of getting a top-five decide as ESPN’s FPI tasks them to carry the No. 2 total decide within the 2024 NFL Draft.